Over the previous few a long time, Nigeria has emerged as one of many key political leaders in Africa. Regardless of a protracted historical past of under-performance, pushed primarily by management and visioning issues, it stays a key world strategic vitality accomplice. It has crude oil and thus the capability to affect the dynamics of world commerce and business.
However when our oil reserve will get exhausted, we are going to witness dramatic nationwide transformations with monumental penalties.
Oil has been the driving pressure of Nigeria’s financial wellbeing. Oil dominates our overseas earnings. The progress we made in agriculture earlier than the daybreak of petroleum has been left behind.
The problem for Nigeria isn’t essentially what occurs now, however what occurs when the oil wells dry up. In others phrases, what can be the place of Nigeria, politically and economically, when the nation can not generate overseas alternate from the sale of oil.
Our nation stays ruled in a political system of utmost stagnation and avalanche partisanship. A system that breeds venoms with capability to destroy the heartbeat that retains the nation shifting ahead. It has created a syndrome that continues to stop the nation from using the good points of oil gross sales to advance the residents, the infrastructure and provides Nigeria a wanted clout within the world enviornment.
The nation has failed in lots of areas as a result of our leaders are entangled in managing authorities processes and political pandering as a substitute of being servant leaders, by serving the pursuits of the plenty. Below this situation, a glance into the nation’s future with out oil can be difficult. A minimum of, the nation will come to actuality after a few years of poor judgments and mismanagements which have precipitated deep pains on the residents.
The primary problem can be cleansing the empty oil wells. It’s unlucky that the oil firms, who regardless of figuring out the general public well being and the environmental impacts of fuel flaring, proceed to flare fuel recklessly in Nigeria. We hope they are going to have the morality to wash these wells and restore them to pre-drilling ecological landscapes earlier than they depart.
Inside Africa, Nigeria’s affect can be examined. Since our nation has not developed any inventive expertise that may maintain the economic system, some African nations could dominate us. South Africa might grow to be like a hegemonic empire in Africa with excessive energy. That nation continues to speculate massively in training, giving Africa its greatest universities, and attracting the most effective African brains.
From banking to expertise, South Africa can be unrivalled and will rule Africa. Because the economies and political energy of different African nations corresponding to Ghana, Libya and Egypt develop; the capability of Nigeria to outline and affect within the African Union will shrink regardless of monumental alternatives for brand spanking new Africa management to place the continent competitively.
When South Africa takes the central position in Africa, there can be broad impacts throughout the Financial Group of West African States (ECOWAS) area. A post-petroleum period will produce huge problems and elementary dislocations in Nigeria’s capability to affect the area as South Africa turns into extra affluent owing to a extremely diversifying economic system.
The Mandela nation is shopping for into extra African markets, and its talents to affect governments will grow to be extra pervasive and that may dwarf Nigeria’s affect.
Lack of oil to drive the economic system will create tendencies for extra educated Nigerians to maneuver overseas with potential strangulation on the economic system. The implication is that the central level of presidency can be reworked and Nigeria might emerge as a real federal system from its current quasi-federal construction.
Whereas the Nigerian union can be repeatedly morphed to stay sturdy, the states can be anticipated to return to fundamentals to develop methods to perform as a result of central funding will diminish. With out crude, assessing exterior (worldwide) mortgage can be tough and lots of Nigerian states can be challenged to be accountable and progressive with their sources. They are going to set up buildings and establishments to create wealth and inter-states competitions will emerge. This can be adopted by efficient tax and income assortment methods.
From federal parliament to state assemblies, the political system can be revamped. The current system which is extraordinarily costly and supported by the biggest of the crude oil can be changed. Some states will grow to be inventive in consultant system in an effort to save price. I see a situation the place some states will sponsor representatives on part-time with the variety of positions lowered by half. Sure, new politics will evolve and the democratic system can be critically examined.
One can’t think about what is going to occur to training in Nigeria if it can’t be funded correctly with the big oil income. Within the post-petroleum period, the current mannequin of upper training in Nigeria will collapse and authorities will request faculties to fund themselves with minimal central helps.
Colleges must grow to be very aggressive and progressive to draw grants and revenues to outlive and develop. Sadly, it should nonetheless overcome the current misplaced years of decay perpetuated by poor funding and outdated mannequin.
What might be completed? The nation nonetheless has time to organize for the post-petroleum period. It has to put money into training. That is necessary as training stays among the finest methods to maintain any economic system. It’s an natural engine for nationwide political and financial succession, in addition to a catalyst for nationwide prosperity.
The nation should additionally take the Millennium Developmental Targets (MDGs) critically, whereas shifting its focus away from oil step by step to information pushed industries.